The Chickahominy Report

This enhanced infrared image of the East­ern U.S. shows Trop­i­cal Depres­sion One in the Atlantic, at about the same lat­i­tude as New Jer­sey. (NOAA)

MECHANICSVILLE, Va. — On May 21, NOAA (the Nation­al Ocean­ic and Atmos­pher­ic Admin­is­tra­tion) told us to expect a near nor­mal Atlantic hur­ri­cane sea­son. NOAA fore­cast­ers said there is a 70 per­cent chance of hav­ing nine to 14 named storms, with four to sev­en hur­ri­canes, and one to three major hur­ri­canes (hur­ri­canes ranked in cat­e­gories 3, 4, or 5 on the Saf­fir-Simp­son scale).

The fore­cast­ers also said high vari­abil­i­ty in glob­al weath­er pat­terns lead to greater than nor­mal uncer­tain­ty about this year’s assess­ment. As if to under­score that point, the first trop­i­cal depres­sion of the year formed off Cape Hat­teras, N.C., on Thurs­day — four days before the offi­cial begin­ning of hur­ri­cane sea­son on June 1. It is also the first trop­i­cal weath­er sys­tem to pass through the neigh­bor­hood of the Mid-Atlantic this season.

TD ONE will have rel­a­tive­ly lit­tle effect on the region, oth­er than some rain as well as the oppor­tu­ni­ty to make this reporter sea­sick a few hours from now (0042 hours EST), but it is a reminder that every­one who lives with­in reach of the Atlantic and Gulf coasts need to take the hur­ri­cane threat seriously.

— David M. Lawrence